Fleet
Per balancing authority
Each row compares the two forecasts' mean MAPE (the average miss, as a share of actual demand) over the paired hours in the 30-day window, at our nominal 24-hour horizon. Hours scored counts the hours where both forecasts and a settled actual exist. Those are the only hours either side is graded on. Expand a row to see which hours were dropped and why.
rollback — our own drift monitor already grades this forecast as failing; the number stands, but we would not defend it. not served — this BA is served a simpler fallback series, so the model scored here is not what its users receive. not in medians — reported separately; not folded into the fleet medians or spread.
Excluded, and why
A balancing authority is left out only when it cannot be scored fairly — a feed whose readings revise too heavily to score intraday, or one that has stopped publishing a day-ahead forecast. Each row carries its reason.
| Balancing authority | Reason | Why it cannot be scored fairly |
|---|
Not yet scoreable — still accumulating
These balancing authorities qualify on every fairness rule but have not yet built up enough comparable hours for a verdict. Each day adds at most 24 newly scoreable hours per horizon, so a newly scored BA needs just over a week before it can appear above. A BA with no verdict yet has not accumulated evidence yet, which is not the same as losing.
| Balancing authority | Paired hours so far | Needed for a verdict |
|---|
What this does not show
Published so the numbers above can be checked. The full list lives in the methodology.
The 24-hour arm is not lead-matched
Operators submit day-ahead forecasts 17–41 hours out by EIA's documentation; ours run just under 24 (the measured range is under “How this is measured”). On a typical hour the operator plausibly forecast from further out than we did — on the very horizon every comparison here is taken from.
The hour set depends on our availability too
An hour is dropped when we have no matured prediction for it, even though the operator's forecast for that hour exists. Not corrected for; the drop counts are published per row instead.
This is not how operators forecast
The day-ahead value is what a BA publishes to EIA. It need not be the forecast it dispatches on, and several operate more sophisticated internal models. A large error here is evidence about the published series, nothing more.
The drift grade never scores a full week
The rollback mark, and the scored-hours count on every row, come from our own drift monitor. Its window holds one comparison per hour of the past week — and it never gets all of them. A 24-hour-ahead score exists only for a target hour whose forecast origin actually occurred, and when EIA publishes two settled hours in the same tick the origin steps over one; nothing re-proposes that hour at a 24-hour lead.
Some rows also lose hours to causes we can fix, and do. The ceiling is not one of them: it is set per balancing authority by how that feed's publication timing falls against an hourly clock, so it is the shape of the measurement rather than a gap being closed. Read each row's count as its sample size.
Not a claim about market value
Demand error only. Nothing here is scored on prices, reserve margins, or dispatch outcomes, and two leads is not the whole horizon curve.